TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 4 Tropical Storm MAN-YI

Issued at 11:00 AM, 14 November 2024

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD.

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD

• Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, MAN-YI is forecast to move southwestward over the next 12 hours before turning generally westward while approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). MAN-YI may enter the PAR region this evening as “PEPITO”.

• Within the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will move generally west northwestward through the rest of the forecast period. On the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Luzon during the weekend (16 or 17 November). It must be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 3rd and 4th day of the forecast track. Therefore, the landfall point may also shift within the range of the forecast confidence cone from the eastern coast of Central Luzon to the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas.

• MAN-YI is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm today and may reach typhoon category by tomorrow morning. The possibility of rapid intensification is not ruled out. Since this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category while over the Philippine Sea, the possibility for MAN-YI to reach super typhoon category prior to landfall is also not ruled out. Regardless, MAN-YI may make landfall at peak intensity.

• Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards and due to the shifting track forecast of MAN-YI, most areas in Luzon and Eastern Visayas are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surpepitoge inundation from MAN-YI which may cause considerable impacts.

• This tropical cyclone may bring potentially risky or hazardous sea conditions (at least moderate to rough or worse) over the eastern seaboard of the country beginning on late Friday or on Saturday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.