TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 3 Severe Tropical Storm #OfelPH(USAGI)

Issued at 5:00 PM, 12 November 2024

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

 “OFEL” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

• Location of Center (4:00 PM)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm OFEL was estimated based on all available data at 780 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.1°N, 131.4°E).

• Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa

• Present Movement

West northwestward at 30 km/h

• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds

Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

• No Wind Signal currently hoisted.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• OFEL is forecast to move west northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the east coast of Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday (14 November) afternoon or evening. It will then emerge over the Luzon Strait, turn more northwestward on Friday (15 November) while slowing down before behaving erratically during the weekend. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone.

• It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track. In particular, two scenarios are emerging: a west northwestward track with a land crossing that is further south of the present scenario and a recurving track to the right of the present forecast which will bring the OFEL mainly offshore of Northern Luzon. Given these, further changes in the track forecast is expected.

• This tropical cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify in the next three days and reach typhoon category tomorrow (November 13) afternoon or evening. OFEL will possibly make landfall at peak intensity.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.

Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.