TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4Typhoon #PepitoPH (MAN-YI)

Issued at 5:00 PM, 15 November 2024

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next five days. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tomorrow (16 November) evening or on Sunday (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar tomorrow afternoon or evening, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening remains not ruled out.

• Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday (18 November) morning.

• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.

• PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall tomorrow evening or on Sunday early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur on Sunday as PEPITO passes over landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and will likely be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.